*This was originally posted July 2, 2015*
As of July 2, the Milwaukee Brewers are 32-48, which happens to be less wins than every team not named the Phillies of Brotherly Love. Diving into the numbers, while cathartic, merely confirms the depths of the Crew’s struggles. Let’s start with these gems that low-light Milwaukee pitching:
Starters ERA: 4.90 (3rd worst in majors)
Hard Contact Allowed: 32.4% (worst in majors)
Home Runs allowed (per 9 innings): 1.15 (2nd worst in majors)
But as the original lyrics by Rob Base and DJ EZ Rock say, it takes 2 to make a run differential go wrong (-72 runs, 3rd worst in majors):
On-base percentage: .294 (3rd worst in majors)
Total Position Player Wins Above Replacement (WAR): 3.2 (3rd worst in majors)
Swing % on Pitches outside the strike-zone: 35.1 % (worst in majors)*
*That last one is a little less encompassing and slightly more random than the other two, but (a) it is an example of how lost the Brewers hitters have been and (b) these lists look better in threes.
Perhaps these stats were not necessary to convince you that this season of Brewers baseball is over. As most fans, you were probably already reminiscing about the high water marks of the 2011 playoff run and hoping beyond hope that the team, with some minor tweeks, can reclaim its glor… um, relevance, as early as next year. I’m year to inform you that this is not possible.
The time frame to rebuild any major league system this depleted (ranked 28th by ESPN's Keith Law) of young, controllable talent that can make credible, consistent runs for playoff contention is probably on the order of 3-5 years, if all goes well. Quickly, what is the number of players currently on the Brewers’ 40-man roster under contract 5 years from now? One, and he'll be talked about later. This means, it is ALL-PLAYERS-ARE-AVAILABLE-FOR-TRADE time, in stark contrast to the tone Melvin has reportedly conveyed.
But, in order to be a seller, the Crew needs some buyers. As the self-appointed, back-seat broker between the Brewers and prospective clubs wanting to make a realistic push for glory in the post season, where flags fly forever and the beer flows like wine, I offer you a few specific trades that not only help the Brewers within a realistic time frame, but can aid some teams requiring one or two specific ingredients to really make that pennant flag shine.
#1: Nationals: Adam Lind (1B) and Gerardo Parra (OF) for Prospects Erick Fedde (RHP) and Victor Robles (OF)
Yes, the Nationals were a pre-season favorite to win the NL East and YES they currently have a 91.9% chance of winning their division (according to fangraphs), but there is a difference between what GOT you HERE and what will TAKE you THERE. With a record of 43-35, they are 3.5 games up on the Mets, but behind both the two other NL division leaders, Dodgers and Cardinals, for home field advantage in the playoffs. While having home field may not be the advantage it once was, the money brought in from those extra home games certainly is.
In order to make extra home games in the postseason a reality, the Nats must keep pace with those other teams, meaning they will have to look beyond what has been the strength of their season thus far: pitching. It’s well known that merely whispering the name “Scherzer” in the ears of any player on the Brewers, Pirates, or Phillies elicits a Montezuma's Revenge-esque response in their respective khakis; it is because of this fire-breathing, hell demon that the Nats lead all of baseball in fWAR from pitchers (12.0), right in front of the Cardinals (11.5) and Dodgers (11.1). The case can be made that the pitchers not named Scherzer have actually under-performed for the Nats, meaning this strength should continue to be so for the rest of the season. On the other side of the ball, however, there should be some worry. Yes, Harper can “carry” an offense at any given time, leading all MLB players in WAR, but he should not be expected to keep pace with his amazing season to date, even without considering his increased probability of additional injury (based on history and playing style).
The question is: where can the Nationals most improve practically? I add the “practically” since options such as replacing Ian Desmond with a yips-less shortstop are reportedly not going to happen. What could/should be done is getting more production out of first base. National’s 1B’s have a combine weighted OBP of .270, 3rd worst in the majors; ie, the Zimmerman/Moore combo is not working out for anyone. However, Zimmerman can still hit lefties a little (92 wRC+, 100 is average), meaning he could be paired with a platoon mate to take care of the other side of the plate once he gets back off the DL. Perhaps someone with a 149 wRC+ against RHP? And with only 3.5 million left this year and a $500 K buyout next year? AND WITH THE FACIAL HAIR OF SOMEONE CHASING AFTER A POT OF GOLD?! Well, he doesn’t have the facial hair anymore, but Adam Lind, in his age 31 season, can still produce against RHP, something the Nats could certainly use in the second half of the season.
The second player of this proposed trade is Gerardo Parra, who in the past has provided great outfield defense and is currently hitting pretty well against both RHP and LHP (wRC+ of 108 and 97 respectively). The Nats have Span in center field (good), Harper in right field (Great!), and some sort of concoction that has provided 82 wRC+ with barely average defense in left (crap). This is largely because Werth has been hurt, but assuming he does come back in a reasonable amount of time, what will his production be? Before he was hurt, his OBP was under .300 and was giving nothing on defense. With the addition of a Parra rental (FA in 2016), the Nats would not only add depth in case Werth’s injury lingers, but would have an outstanding defensive replacement and pinch hitting option (7 for 13 with .846 SLG as PH). With the prospect of Wacha and Grienke throwing cheese at you from the right side of the rubber in a playoff game, the Nats need to consider players such as Lind and Parra over the in-house options in order to have the best chance to succeed.
On the Brewers’ side, it almost doesn’t matter for this year. They can play Lot’s wife staring at Gomorrah at 1B to help along the tanking process (don’t say tanking… I said tanking). In actuality, Council could keep throwing Jason Rodgers out there and see if there is any water in that well. And since the Brewers will be getting Davis back to play left field relatively soon, the loss of Parra will be minimal. As for the prospects the Crew would get back from the Nats, it’s a crapshoot, not just because it is historically difficult to identify future major league talent, but because I personally don’t know much about any prospects in any team’s system (save the 20 minutes I spent reading about the two nearly random guys I chose off the Nats prospect list). That being said, both Fedde and Robbles sound like decent trade chips that could help the Brewers long term and not affect the Nats strong farm system. The Brewers are in constant need of pitching in their system, and the Nationals are loaded to the brim with it. No one’s prying top RHP prospect Lucas Giolito from them, so the Crew could target decent-upside pitchers with a time-frame of ~2017 to be in the majors. Fedde seems to be that good mix of high-enough upside (Keith Law’s #9 ranked prospect in Nats’ system) with slight risk (TJ surgery in 2014). Additionally, OF Robles is kind of interesting in that he’s far enough away (only 18 years old) that he won’t help anyone for a while, but two various sites say to keep an eye on him as a multi-tool sleeper.
#2: Mets: Carlos Gomez (CF) for Zack Wheeler (RHP)
Why leave the NL East when we’re having so much fun! Actually, it’s been about a month and half since the Mets were having much fun, as they started out 20-11, but have since gone 20-28 and currently have only a 19.3% chance of making the playoffs. The problem has not been their pitching, as they boast the major’s 5th best starting rotation by fWAR (10.4). Based on the ages of those pitchers not named Colon, this will likely be their strength for years to come. But just like the gym dude who clearly skips leg day, their weaknesses are very obvious, including but not limited to production from the outfield. Michael Cuddyer has been mercifully been sidelined with an injury, and hopefully this spurns the Mets to add a player that can provide better than a sub .300 OBP with terrible defense.
It’s well known that the Mets are… how we say… frugal, and would not like to add to the payroll to the historical detriment to the team. But you got to spend money to make money. With the average attendance of Met home games sitting just below CINCINNATI, we can all agree there is potential in the already existing fan to watch this team do its thing, as long as that thing is exciting. Now, who is one of the best CF in the game and just happens to be on the short list of most exciting players to watch? Who also happened to be drafted by the Mets and was traded to obtain the pitcher that has the only no-hitter in Mets history? Who also happens to be on a super team-friendly deal thru 2016? CARLOS GET-YOUR-POPCORN-READY GOMEZ, THAT’s WHO! As Jonah Keri notes in his article, only 3 players have a higher WAR than Gomez over the 2013-2014 seasons. So not only could the Mets use this man’s skills, EVERY team could use this man’s skills. Well, every team that wants to win this season. In the field, since Lagares is still playing good defense in center, the Mets would ideally let Cuddyer focus on clubhouse chemistry and play an outfield of Gomez, Lagares, and Granerson, from left to right. In the lineup, Gomez provides the power/speed combination to be utilized anywhere in the top of the order, but he does love him some cleanup (wRC+ of 113 hitting 4th, Met’s 4th hitters are 91). Sprinkle in a bat flip or two, you have a player that puts W’s on the board and butts in the seats.
Sidebar, Brewers fan brethren. I know, I love this guy too. His intensity is palpable, and he seems like a great, fun guy. It hurts this admirer’s heart as well, but we have to listen to our heads in this case. He’ll be 31 when he starts his next contract and has a GM-eating demon of an agent that would rather watch the world burn than see his client take a team-friendly deal (all the power to Boras, by the way, much respect). Meaning, by the time the Brewers are thinking playoffs again, there is a better chance than not that he will be overpaid for his production, and small-market teams cannot take that risk. The pain caused by his departure won’t be dissipated when you see him in a different uniform, but just know that sometimes the best decisions initially hurt the most.
What will help is watching Zack Wheeler as the prize in return for Gomez. Brewer fans may remember the 6-4, 195-lb. stick of a man who threw 6 innings of 1-run ball while touching 95 mph against them, because I certainly do. I also remember being super jealous and sad that we haven’t had a pitching prospect make me feel that way since 2004 Ben Sheets. The return of Wheeler (Baseball America's #11 prospect after 2012 season) for Gomez would give the Brewers fanbase a reason to trust in the plan going forward. That’s a little more emotional than practical, but rebuilding will take time, and over the course of time, trust is tested. Obtaining this guy would go a long way in showing that trust is well placed, if he develops into the player many scouts think he will: a ace. Now, if the Mets can convince themselves that (a) a 6-man rotation is ridiculous and (b) the combination of Harvey, Degrom, and Syndergaard is still a great young pitching trio to build around moving forward, the Mets could win short and long term with this move.
#3: Angles: Ryan Braun (OF) and Cash for Prospects Sean Newcomb (LHP) and Kyle Kubitza (3B)
In May of 2008, the Brewers made an incredibly smart move and signed the 2007 rookie of the year Ryan Braun to an 8-year, $45 million deal that was excellent for both parties. Braun was given the largest contract in baseball history to a player with less than 3 years’ experience, while the Brewers were given one of the best hitters in the majors thru his peak years. Then, in April of 2011, the Brewers made an incredibly stupid move and extended the 2010 Silver Slugger to an additional 5-year, $105 million deal, paying him nearly $20 million per year from ages 32-36. While that whole deal doesn’t pass the smell test, based on Melvin saying that Braun approached him about this extension and subsequently failed a drug test less than 8 months later, it doesn’t change the fact that Braun’s contract is real and now officially an albatross based on his production for a small market team (well, the extension kicks in next year, but its shadow is looming).
Luckily, Braun is playing well enough this year that some albatross-loving teams could use his particular set of skills this year and in the foreseeable future. The Dodgers already have a plethora of outfielders, even with Crawford on the DL, but the other “LA” team should be interested. Considering where they are right now, 5 games behind the Bash’n Astros, and only a 43.8% chance of making the playoffs, the Angles need to either poop or get off the pot. And considering the front office mess they currently find themselves in, they’re probably going with the figurative #2 option.
But before the baseball case is made for the Angles to trade for Braun’s services, let us first analyze the financial impact. The Angles are clearly not a team that is afraid of paying large sums of money for older players: Jered Waver and CJ Wilson are making an average of $19 million each year for the next 2 years EACH, while Pujols is making north of $25 million each year until the heat death of the universe. They are even sill paying ~$15 million of Josh Hamilton’s contract, who they traded away just to remove him from the team. Before Hamilton turned into the person they hated, he was the player they loved: corner outfield slugger. So why shouldn’t the Angles actually get that player in Braun if the only thing stopping them is the monetary price tag when money clearly is no object?
So now the question becomes, how close is Braun to being the player they wanted in Hamilton? Coming off his (until recently) last season with the Rangers in 2012, he provided 4.4 fWAR of value, a combination of 141 wRC+ behind the plate and awful defense. While Braun will probably not provide that level of offensive production later in his career, he is certainly capable of 30-35 homer power and reaching base 35% of the time this year while playing better defense than Hamilton provided. While Braun certainly has his own checkered past, the risk of injury/ physical breakdown was much greater in Hamilton’s case based on his own admitted history. Braun’s future upside is nearly that of what the Angel’s thought Hamilton’s could be, but with a much higher floor upon failure.
In real life, however, the Angels would not be replacing Hamilton with Braun. They’d be replacing a player who has been much worse. It didn’t confirm the Higgs, but the Right Field Kole Calhoun experiment yielded better than expected results in 2014, but has regressed to an average production offensively and defensively this year. If the Angles want to live with that, they will need to address left field, where Matt Joyce has been of the worst position players in the majors. He has provided the 3rd worst fWAR (-1.1), behind only Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox (-1.3) and Chase Utley of the Phillies (-1.3). Obtaining Braun will provide an instant upgrade at one of the least positions in all of baseball and leave the Angles with a 2-3-4 combination of Trout-Braun-Pujols.
In return for Braun, the Crew would get budget relaxation over the next 5 years, a prospect, or some combination of both. The Angles system is not plush with top end prospects, but ones that the Brewers should be asking about include LHP Sean Newcomb and 3B Kyle Kubitza. These two are 22 and 24 years old, respectively, and Kubitza start as soon as Ramirez sails off into the sunset. Newcomb is projected to be MLB ready in 2017, but needs to work on consistent command. It’s not Richie Sexton haul, but less is more when it comes to Braun’s contract for the Brewers.